Fields of interest
- International Macroeconomics
- Oil Market and Monetary Policy Interactions
- European Capital and Labor Market Integration
- Economic Growth and Distribution
- DSGE Modelling
Work in progress
Paper presented at the SMYE 2017 @ Halle, EEA-ESEM 2016 @ Geneva, Econometric Society NASM 2016 @ Philadelphia, 12th Dynare Conferenc @ Rome, 10th CFE Conference @ Sevilla, BERA Macroeconomic Workshop @ Berlin.
Paper presented at the EEA-ESEM* 2016 @ Geneva, RES* Annual Conference 2016 @ Brighton, PRSE Seminar @ University of Potsdam.
Investigating the business cycle in 55 bilateral migration corridors in the euro area over the period 1980-2010, we find evidence for business cycle related fluctuations in net migration flows and the crucial role of unemployment in shaping migration patterns. While on average wage and unemployment differentials are negatively correlated with net migration, across migration corridors we document a considerable heterogeneity in both dimensions that is more pronounced for wages. In line with these findings, we built a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of internal business cycle migration in the euro area and allow for unemployment that occurs as a consequence of labor market frictions and rigidities in both countries. Our model is able to replicate the empirical observations and explains the heterogeneity of migration corridors by differences in the type of shock that hits an economy and the relative price/wage rigidity. We contribute to the literature on the causes and consequences of temporary migration and bridge it to DSGE models with unemployment.
Paper presented at the Verein für Socialpolitik* Annual Conference 2016 @ Augsburg, 11th Dynare Conference @ Brussels, CEF* 2015, Taipeh, HU Brown Bag Seminar @ Berlin, PRSE Seminar* @ Potsdam.
A European unemployment insurance scheme has gained increased attention as a new and ambitious common fiscal instrument which could be used for temporary cross-country transfers. Part of the national stabilizers composing unemployment insurance schemes would be transferred to the central level. Unemployed are then insured by both layers. When a country is hit by an asymmetric shock, it would receive positive net transfers from the central
fund in the form of reduced taxes and increased benefits, providing risk-sharing for the whole union.
We build a two-country DSGE model with supply, demand and labor market shocks in order to capture the recent national insurance system and the unemployment insurance union (UIU) design. The model is calibrated to the euro area core and periphery data and matches the empirically observed cyclicality of the net replacement rate, the wage and unemployment dynamics. This baseline scenario is then compared to a optimal unemployment insurance union with passive and active benefit policies. For all underlying shocks, we find that the UIU reduces the fluctuation of consumption and unemployment while it increases the fluctuation of the trade balance. In case of a positive domestic government spending shock the UIU reduces the negative crowding out effect on private consumption and investment. The model will be used to analyze the effects of national and supranational benefit policies on labour market patterns and welfare.
Paper will be presented at the SED 2017 @ Edingburgh, EEA-ESEM 2017 @ Lisbon, AFSE 2017 @ Nice, EUROFRAME 2017 @ Berlin
* own presentation